[ARTIKEL] ISLAMIC STATE’S GLOBAL EXPANSION: A RENEWED THREAT TO ASIA?
[3rd SERIES] THE RISE OF ISLAMIC STATE IN ASIA
BY: ROHAN GUNARATNA
Global Asia Vol. 14, No. 3, September 2019
Historically, the rise of Islamist groups in Asia is traced to the anti-Soviet multinational Afghan Mujahidin campaign beginning in the 1980s. After the defeat of the Soviets, the foreign fighters remained in tribal Pakistan and Afghanistan. They formed Al Qaeda in 1988 and the Afghan Taliban in 1995. With the rise of IS after 2014, the Taliban, a group aligned with Al Qaeda, opposed IS. The Taliban remains the dominant player, but IS in Afghanistan created a Wilayat, Khorasan, and is gaining strength because it is well organized and presents a growing threat to both the Afghan government and the Taliban. in the coming years, IS will diminish in Syria and Iraq, but will expand in South Asia. In the eastern provinces of Afghanistan, IS has become strong militarily to the extent that it is displacing the Afghan Taliban in fighting. Its current strength in Afghanistan is estimated at between 2,000 and 2,500 fighters.
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The Taliban members are divided into three categories. The sympathizers and supporters are nearing 100,000. Active Taliban fighters in Afghanistan are nearing 60,000. With Pakistani security forces hunting IS actively on its soil, IS fighters of Pakistani origin are largely located in Afghanistan. The emergence of IS led to a split in the largest Pakistani Taliban group, tehreek-e-taliban Pakistan (ttP), from within and dislodged the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (iMU), which has relocated to Afghanistan, from the Taliban-Al-Qaeda league. Such divisions provide IS with the opportunity to form alliances, be an unpredictable security threat and rival the Taliban.
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The IS presence in Afghanistan has implications for the Taliban peace talks with the US and with Pakistan. The Taliban keep stressing that they want an Islamic government in Afghanistan. in the light of the growing IS strength and ruthlessness, the Taliban is likely to continue to demand an Islamic government. The talks are likely to fail in the short term. The Afghan Taliban is unwilling to compromise and accommodate the Afghan government in a power-sharing arrangement. The number of IS operatives in Pakistan is a few hundred, but the islamist threat there is significant.
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Although they are ideologically and operationally close, Afghanistan and Pakistan IS leadership operate independently. increasingly, IS Khorasan is focusing on Afghanistan and Central Asia. About 5,500 Central Asian citizens have joined the fight in iraq and Syria. They include 2,000 nationals from Uzbekistan, 2,000 from Tajikistan, 850 from Kyrgyzstan and 500 to 600 from Kazakhstan. Most of the Central Asians recruited by IS, mostly in Turkey, the Gulf and Russia. “Some 80 to 90 percent of ISIS fighters from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are radicalized and recruited while in Russia as migrant workers,” according to Noah tucker, author of a report on Central Asian involvement in the conflict in Syria and Iraq.
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