[ARTIKEL] ISLAMIC STATE’S GLOBAL EXPANSION: A RENEWED THREAT TO ASIA?
[1ST SERIES] INTRODUCTION
[1ST SERIES] INTRODUCTION
BY: ROHAN GUNARATNAGlobal Asia Vol. 14, No. 3, September 2019
The threat of the Islamic State (IS) in
Asia reached a new high after the fall of the physical Caliphate with the loss
of Baghouz, Syria on March 23. Although IS lost its territorial control, its
leadership, headed by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, is alive. It is entering a new
phase to spread its influence and operations worldwide. Just like how it’s
mother group al Qaeda went global after it was dislodged from Afghanistan
following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, IS now is expanding globally. With 63
percent of Muslims living in Asia, the region is a big target for IS, in both
the Asian physical and cyber space. Asian governments are underprepared or
unprepared to fight the threat. With its losses in Iraq and Syria, IS
decentralized by dispatching nearly 100 operatives, both Iraqi and foreign, to
its wilayats (provinces) and other countries with support networks.
To coordinate this new phase, IS supporters
and sympathizers worldwide rely on both IS central and IS bridgeheads. After
losing its last stronghold in Syria, IS mounted a devastating attack in Sri
Lanka on Easter Sunday 2019. The scale, intensity and magnitude demonstrated
the new face of the threat. Throughout Asia, both IS central and its
decentralized structures are directing, enabling and inspiring attacks. The
leadership is also relying more on Afghanistan as a forward headquarters. The
drawdown of US forces from Afghanistan will create a vacuum that will allow for
IS growth not only in Afghanistan but in Central, South, Southeast and
Northeast Asia. Although Xinjiang, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, is
China’s western frontline in the fight against terrorism, Beijing is not ready
to deepen its overseas military presence. The Russian-led coalition force in
Syria also made a difference in eroding IS power. The US worked with Iraqi
forces to eliminate the last stronghold of IS, and with Kurdish forces to
weaken IS in Syria.
However, to claim IS has been defeated in
Iraq and Syria is not accurate. It maintains a significant presence in the
Euphrates Valley and beyond. Aimed at US disengagement from Syria and Iraq, US
President Donald Trump’s statement immediately after the IS loss of Baghouz was
premature. “You kept hearing it was 90 percent, 92 percent, the caliphate in
Syria. Now it’s 100 percent [that has been destroyed],” Trump said.” Such a
hasty withdrawal without assessing IS will have an impact worldwide. In an
interconnected world, an abrupt withdrawal could impact the global threat
landscape.While IS lost physical territory in Syria and Iraq, the IS attacks
in Iraq and Syria are still the highest, according to the IS news agency, Amaq,
and other sources. Amaq claimed 1,800 attacks that killed or injured 8,000
civilians and security personnel during the first six months of 2019.
Although IS figures are exaggerated, it is
clear that the Middle East remains the most active IS theater. In Syria, IS
propaganda claimed that it killed and injured 1,910 in 534 attacks, and in
Iraq, IS killed and injured 1,692 in 666 attacks. Most of its attacks were in
theaters of conflict, but IS also developed capabilities to operate off the
battlefield. With its mastery in cyberspace, IS radicalized the vulnerability
online and co-opted like-minded threat groups. The threat is not only from IS
but from its forerunner, al Qaeda and its affiliates. Al Qaeda-centric groups,
notably HTS in Syria, al Shabab in Africa, the Taliban in Afghanistan and
others, continued to pose a threat, while IS is the dominant global player.
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