The coronavirus pandemic is dominating the
news in Turkey today, steering public attention away from Idlib, Syria, where
Ankara is increasingly caught between a rock and a hard place.
The situation in the northwestern Syrian
province continues to be volatile, despite the fragile cease-fire reached
between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on March 5.
The jihadi groups that Ankara has
maintained some degree of contact with in the region remain Turkey’s Achilles’
heel in its dealings with Russia over Idlib.
These groups also pose an obstacle to
Ankara as it tries to achieve its immediate goals in the province. Turkey’s
principal aim is to establish safe zones there to house the millions of Syrian
refugees it hosts.
The refugee issue has become a heavy burden
for the country, which now faces additional problems and financial
uncertainties due to the COVID-19 crisis.
Russia’s position has not changed. It
insists that jihadi groups in Idlib have to be eliminated before military
operations can be finally terminated.
The main group in Russia’s crosshairs is
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which Moscow continues to refer to by its original
name, Jabhat al-Nusra. The Moscow Summit on March 5 once again tasked Ankara
with removing HTS and related groups from Idlib.
Ankara was similarly tasked under the
former Astana process, which was co-sponsored by Turkey, Russia and Iran in
2017, but failed, according to Moscow, to fulfill its obligation.
The ultimate result of this failure was the
recent face-off between Russia and Turkey in Idlib and the deadly clashes
between the Turkish army and forces attached to the Syrian regime.
Having failed to take on HTS and similar
groups in any significant manner to date, the question remains as to whether
Ankara has the will to carry out this task today.
Al-Monitor’s Fehim Tastekin underlined
Ankara’s reluctance “to treat the jihadi factions it has backed, and allowed to
use its borders, as terrorist groups.”
The fact that Ankara designated HTS as a
terrorist organization belatedly in August 2018, to comply with the UN’s list
of terrorist organizations, did not alter this situation, as Tastekin pointed
out.
Turkey’s connections with HTS go back to
the early years of the Syrian conflict. In January 2013, Hurriyet Daily News
reported on Ankara’s displeasure that Washington had listed Jabhat al-Nusra as
a terrorist organization.
“Turkish officials … said it was more
important to focus on the ‘chaos’ that al-Assad has created instead of groups
such as al-Nusra,” the paper wrote at the time.
The question of jihadi fighters in Idlib
has taken on an added significance now following last week’s killing of two
Turkish soldiers in the region by “radical groups,” as stated by Turkey’s
Ministry of Defense.
While no one owned up to the rocket attack
that killed the soldiers, it is taken as a given in Turkey that it was carried
out by HTS or a splinter group.
HTS has refused to comply with the
cease-fire reached at the Moscow summit. Russia says HTS was also the organizer
of the recent protests that obstructed the joint Turkish-Russian patrol on the
strategic M4 highway.
In its statement on last week’s attack against
Turkish forces, the Ministry of Defense added that retaliation came swiftly and
the perpetrators were neutralized immediately.
Many are wondering now if this is the
harbinger of the next stage of the crisis in Idlib where Turkish forces and
jihadis fight it out.
In February, Erdogan put “bashi-bozouks”
(irregular elements among opposition fighters in Syria) on notice. He said
these elements would not be tolerated by Turkey “if their actions gave the
regime an excuse to mount attacks.”
The Moscow summit may have ended the
clashes in Idlib for the time being. Nevertheless, most analysts believe the
highly fragile cease-fire will collapse due to attacks by HTS and retaliation
from Russia-backed regime forces.
Accusations are already being leveled by
both sides regarding sporadic violations of the cease-fire, while the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights reported on exchanges of fire between opposition
and regime forces in various parts of Idlib province in recent days.
Moscow remains adamant about the need to
eliminate HTS from Idlib. In all its agreements with Ankara since the first
Astana summit in January 2017, it has spelled out that HTS and similar groups
would be outside any cease-fire agreement and remain legitimate targets.
With this determination on the Russian
side, it is unclear how Ankara plans to approach the matter. What is certain is
that it is in a situation, where it is damned if it acts and damned if it
doesn’t.
Should Ankara decide to take on HTS — which
controls a large swath of northwestern Syria — it is likely to pay a high price
in civilian and military casualties. It will, after all, be engaging a hardened
jihadi group that uses nonconventional and asymmetrical terror tactics to
achieve its goals.
Retired Brig. Gen. Naim Baburoglu, a
much-cited military analyst, said Turkey is unlikely to mount a large-scale
operation against HTS or similar groups.
In an interview with daily Cumhuriyet,
Baburoglu argued that such an operation would not only result in a new flood of
refugees swarming the Turkish border, but also enable undesired elements to
move into Turkey.
“Nevertheless, pinpoint operations can be
mounted, together with opposition elements, against radical groups,” Baburoglu
said.
This, however, suggests retaliations against
specific attacks — such as the one last week — and would not represent a
general approach to the matter. Moscow is unlikely to be appeased with this
approach.
How Turkish-supported opposition groups are
expected to take on HTS, at Turkey’s bidding, having cooperated with this group
and its offshoots against the regime for months, is also unclear.
Columnist Sedat Ergin pointed to Turkey’s
other dilemma in Idlib.
“If the aims of the Moscow agreement of
March 5 are not realized due to obstructions by HTS and other radical groups,
then Russia may repeat the tactic it employed in the past,” Ergin wrote in
daily Hurriyet.
“It will wait a while then say, ‘It’s not possible
to live with these terrorist groups,’ and start an all-out military operation
with the regime that triggers a new wave of refugees,” Ergin argued.
The pro-government media in Turkey are
indicating that remarks by Washington’s Syria envoy James Jeffrey may point to
a softening of the US position regarding HTS.
Jeffrey said Feb. 5 that "we have not
seen [HTS] planning or carrying out international terrorism attacks. We’ve seen
them focusing on basically maintaining their position in Idlib.”
Some interpret these remarks as a sign that
the United States could remove HTS from its list of international terrorist
organizations. If that were to happen, it would help Turkey in Idlib.
Given Russia’s firm position on this group,
though, such expectations appear to be wishful thinking.
In the meantime, Ankara continues to send
heavy equipment and reinforcements to Idlib after the Moscow summit. This
suggests that it is factoring in and preparing for the possibility of a
resumption of military activity.
Turkey’s headaches in Idlib are far from
over.
Source: Al- Monitor-
24 March 2020
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